The world today is no longer the same as it was just a month ago. The uncertainty of a worldwide pandemic creates a new reality not only for each and every one of us personally, but also for your business. In fact, whatever your product/market fit was last month- chances are you will need to change or adapt it to meet the new norms.
To emphasize this, Steve Blank suggests a crystal-clear message in his recent blog post: “if you’re leading any startup or small business, you have to be asking yourself: What’s Plan B? And what’s in my lifeboat?”.
Answering this critical question begins with identifying possible backup options and assessing how promising they might be down the road. Then, you need to clearly communicate your Plan B vision, and align your team and stakeholders around it. Here are few structured steps that can help you in this messy process.
1. Set some assumptions about the ‘day after’
Social isolation and the declared global health emergency have a tremendous impact on our society and economy. Companies in almost all industries are shutting down activities and sending employees home. For startups and small businesses who struggle with low cash reserves, the impact of this unexpected downturn may simply be detrimental.
The glass is definitely half empty, but it can also be half-full! The new conditions create all sorts of new opportunities: businesses will be looking for ways to reduce their costs, increase efficiency, operate online, or work with remote staff. Consumers will likely change the way they work, travel and shop.
As you strive to choose your next steps, the first thing you need to do is make some assumptions on how the “day after” would look like: what would be the common trends and needs in your domain? Of course, these assumptions are currently still difficult to validate, but they align your team around a shared view on your business environment down the road.
2. Recognize your building blocks and imagine different towers
Good backup opportunities should be relying on your core, unique abilities. Therefore, begin the discovery process by clearly characterizing these competencies. In fact, once you think about your core technological elements in their own right – decoupled from any specific product- they become your building blocks. You can now combine and re-combine them in many different ways, to create different offerings that can address the future needs of different customers.
A structured thought process to help you in this discovery activity is depicted in Worksheet 1 of the Market Opportunity Navigator. Apply it to run a guided brainstorming session with your (remoted) team. It will not only help you in scanning possible backup opportunities systematically, but will also allow you to develop your cognitive flexibility- a key ability in times of uncertainty.
3. Assess synergies to minimize effort
In such turbulent times, scarcity of resources is probably the one undoubted condition. Hence, among the different backup options that you identified, try to focus on those that will require minimum additional efforts to pursue. In other words- assess synergies and evaluate the relatedness of possible backup opportunities to your existing lines of business.
Relatedness means that pursuing this new business opportunity will require relatively similar resources and capabilities. The more related an option is, the more you can leverage your existing competencies to succeed in it. And this is exactly what we want.
Using Worksheet 3 of the Market Opportunity Navigator, you can assess the product relatedness and market relatedness of different backup options. When done, choose few possible opportunities that can form your ‘plan B’, and prioritize them in a simple manner: which one you plan to focus on now, and which options you will keep open as a future fallback.
4. Communicate and learn as you go
Every day looks a bit different and the future is still vague. Yet, you simply cannot allow yourself to wait patiently until the fog disappears. You need to make some decisions now, and clearly communicate your plan to employees and investors.
Align your team around an achievable plan, and set clear learning goals as you move forward. Be systematic about this learning and reflect on your insights periodically. It’s the best you can do when wondering in the dark.
At the end of the day, keep in mind that uncertainties and crises force companies to be creative and agile. It’s clearly not an easy job, but structured processes can turn it into a more manageable task. Startups that will be able to creatively maintain their agility, will excel and shine when better days arrive. Amen 🙂
A structured wonder in the dark: how to identify and set your ‘Plan B’ was last modified: March 24th, 2020 by Marc & Sharon
I recently came back from running a ‘Where to Play’ workshop for double-bottom-line startups at EPFL’s Tech4Impact program. The interesting aspect of this workshop was the need to estimate the social or environmental impact of different market opportunities, and add this key dimension to the set of considerations when choosing where to play. We therefore called it ‘Where to Impact’.
I am happy to share with you this brand-new addition to the Market Opportunity Navigator and how it fits the overall process.
Defining a market opportunity
In conventional businesses, market opportunities are defined as a specific offering for a specific set of customers. In social ventures however, it is important to add the beneficiaries into this definition.
Beneficiaries could be your paying customers (i.e. affordable products for the poor), the end users of your innovation (i.e. a medical device for handicapped people), other members internal or external to your value creation model (such as suppliers/employees) or even the planet (i.e. clean energy system). In all cases, you must specify the beneficiaries of your market opportunities so you can estimate your overall impact on that group.
Estimating the overall social/environmental impact
Worksheet 2 of the Market Opportunity Navigator guides you how to systematically assess the overall economic potential and the overall challenge of each market opportunity. A new worksheet (Worksheet 2B) can now help you to estimate the overall social/environmental impact of your opportunities, to make sure you can gain sustainability along with financial returns.
The worksheet includes 3 key factors:
1.Problem Severity: are you trying to address an important and painful problem for these beneficiaries? To estimate this factor, you will need to understand if this is really an unresolved social/environmental concern, does it bear significant detrimental consequences, and how big is this problem (in terms of affected people/ areas). You can look at resources such as the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals or the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum to help you in this assessment.
2.Pertinent solution: Is your solution well suited to address the social/environmental challenge and to be adopted by your beneficiaries? To estimate this factor, you will need to understand how effective and efficient is your solution, is it clearly better than existing alternatives, and does it avoid secondary harm or negative effects. Frameworks like Theory of Change and Life Cycle Analysis can help you in this estimation.
3.Impact reach: Can you achieve a broad & long-lasting impact? To estimate this factor, you will need to understand how easy it will be to measure and report impact, how enduring and how scalable is your solution. Resources like Theory of Change and Scaling Social Impact can actually help you to design your solution so that it is measurable and scalable from the outset.
Once you consider these 3 factors, you can estimate the overall social/environmental impact of any market opportunity, with a scale ranging from low to super high.
The Attractiveness Map (step 2 of the Market Opportunity Navigator) helps you to summarize your learning and visually compare your market opportunities. You locate opportunities on this map based on their economic potential and on their level of challenge. Now, you can add their impact level by drawing small hearts on each sticky note. Draw one heart for low impact, all the way to four hearts for super high impact. Finally- all the key considerations are summarized in one image, so you can compare, prioritize, and choose ‘where to impact’.
Putting it all together
As a short example, lets look at Insolight. This Swiss based startup developed a radically new design of translucent solar panels with record breaking efficiency. Their solution lowers the cost of renewable energy and thus contributes to one of the major problems of this planet: Co2 emission.
As a venture striving to maximize both financial returns and sustainable impact, Insolight needs to choose their initial target market, and build their roadmap to success. They examined 3 possible directions: applying their translucent solar panels in greenhouses- to combine electricity and agricultural production, integrating it in newly designed architectures- to enable zero-energy buildings, or replacing the standard commercial rooftop panels- to increase efficiency and enable higher returns on investment.
Applying Worksheet 2 and 2B of the Market Opportunity Navigator helped them to systematically evaluate the economic potential, the challenge and the environmental impact of each option. Summarizing the results on the Attractiveness Map, allowed them to take all three dimensions into consideration when choosing their path.
Confronting the financial-social tradeoff
Going through this process with multiple startups revealed an intriguing insight: in double-bottom-line ventures, choosing where to play often means choosing what comes first: financial gains or social gains. Understanding your priorities and discussing this with your team is sometimes critical, as different market opportunities might vary on both aspects and create a real dilemma.
For example, Swoxid is developing a water purifying system operating on sunlight. Their mission is to provide safe drinking water in developing countries. This opportunity combines limited economic potential with extremely high social impact. On the other hand, they could apply this simple system to purify water in swimming pools and lower the usage of Chlorine. While this market bears high economic potential, its social impact is limited.
While the Market Opportunity Navigator doesn’t tell you which option is superior, it does help you to realize the tradeoff and confront it. Choosing which option is more attractive depends eventually on your own goals and motivations.
Overall, more and more ventures strive to ‘do good’ and make the world a better place with their business. We are happy to join this wonderful movement and offer this framework to help managers figure out where to impact. Good luck 😊
Where to Play – Where to Impact was last modified: December 29th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
I just came back from running a full-week ‘Where to Play’ workshop for postdocs at the Runway Program by the Jacobs-Technion-Cornell Institute at Cornell Tech. This small group of bright researchers are on a mission to found a start-up and commercialize their tech expertise. During the workshop, we go through the 3 steps of the Market Opportunity Navigator so they can get an overview of their potential markets, and adopt a structured process to evaluate and prioritize opportunities.
Whenever I finish a workshop, I always ask participants to write down their 3 key takeaways and share it with the group. I love this exercise because it forces them to connect the content to their own specific situation. I also love it because from time to time I hear insights that surprise me, and indicate the depth of this framework. So here are few of these intriguing takeaways that I heard at Cornell.
The cost of moving in the wrong direction
We always talk about finding your most valuable market opportunities and making sure you are running in the right direction. But the cost of moving in the wrong direction is a different story. In fact, pursuing an inferior market not only decreases your chances of getting traction and generating revenues, it also imprints the DNA of your venture in ways which might be irreversible down the road. So the cost of running down the wrong road may simply be unaffordable for start-ups.
Quantify how much you don’t know
The Market Opportunity Navigator helps you to systematically assess different market opportunities. It provides the key questions to ask, and allows managers to combine endless bits of information into one clear pattern. We designed it to help business leaders bring the right evidence to support their strategic decision. Surely, it’s a learning process, but we seldom think of it the other way around: applying a systematic assessment helps you to understand how much you still don’t know. It confronts you with key considerations that you have not looked at, and limits your chances of setting a strategy based on your own intuition or biases.
Concretize the far future
In recent entrepreneurship literature, ‘planning’ has somehow turned into a ‘dirty word’. Instead, entrepreneurs are encouraged to look for small, validated steps. Imagining the far future of the venture in a concrete manner therefore goes against this common reasoning. That is why I was happy to hear this insight. In fact, being able to see the bigger picture offers some real advantages to early stage ventures. Mainly, it allows them to adopt a ‘portfolio mindset’ while focusing, thus helping them to avoid a fatal lock-in. Moreover, it doesn’t even matter if down the road this plan will not be pursued, as it anyway helps managers to bake agility into the DNA of their venture.
Of course there were many other insights discussed around the table that day, but I found these 3 to be especially interesting, as they are not that trivial.
My three takeaways
Once founders share their lessons, I share with them my own list. It includes the 3 main insights that I want them to take from this process. Here it is:
The advantage of a structured process
The benefit of seeing the BIG picture
The process is simple. Applying it is more complex…
I hope these insights help founders and managers that struggle to prioritize market opportunities for their business, especially in such an uncertain world.
Good luck 🙂
Intriguing takeaways from a Where to Play workshop was last modified: October 30th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
CompPair develops healable composite materials for extending the life-time of composite structures. Founded by Dr. Amaël Cohades and based on over 12 years of research at EPFL (Switzerland), this startup needs to find the best market opportunity for its innovation.
The magic of self-healing materials
While current repair solutions in composites involve monitoring failure, removal of the damaged zones and repair, CompPair’s unique materials enable in-situ preparation of micro-cracks using a simple and cost-efficient thermal mending process (i.e. a blow dryer for 1 minute).
The advantages are clear: CompPair provides smart and sustainable composite materials that easily fit into current production lines and can significantly reduce maintenance cost or increase application life-time.
The applications, therefore, are endless, ranging from sports gear, to buildings or marines- to name just a few.
One of the biggest challenges for Amaël was to figure out where to start building his business: which market domain could benefit most from his unique technology.
To help him in this critical decision, a group of PhD students in the course “Entrepreneurial Opportunity Identification and Exploitation” worked on assessing different market opportunities for CompPair. The goal of their project was to identify the most appropriate strategy to bring this novel product to a commercial success by using the Market Opportunity Navigator.
Who needs healable solutions? The discovery process
Following the structured process, the group identified five different market opportunities that seemed worthy for further investigation. These were:
Mast for super yachts
Each opportunity bears different potential and challenges which they assessed through desk research and interviews with relevant professionals. Initial indications showed that hockey sticks production and Prosthetics might be considered as “Gold mine” opportunities, while Drones and Bridges were defined as “Moon shots”. Mast for super-yacht seemed non-attractive due to low interest from professionals working in this field.
Based on this evaluation, the group recommended the startup to focus on hockey stick manufacturers and try to learn more about this market opportunity. They also recommended to keep looking at drones and bridges, as they could be interesting markets for future growth or backup.
The summary of their analysis is depicted on the Market Opportunity Navigator below. To read the full study, including the filled worksheets, click here.
For Amaël and his team, this project ignited a long learning and validation process. Through a deeper market study with over 60 potential customers and experts, they discarded some of the possible directions and added new ones. Using the Market Opportunity Navigator to reflect on their learning, the team eventually decided to focus on the marine and sport industries.
Since then, CompPair obtained various grants to develop their business case, and plan their market entry during 2020. For more news about their progress visit: www.comppair.ch.
CompPair- Finding the way from the Lab to the Market was last modified: July 23rd, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
Steve Blank, father of the Lean Startup methodology, explains why the Market Opportunity Navigator is a key framework when searching for a scalable, repeatable business:
Modern entrepreneurship began at the turn of this century with the observation that startups aren’t smaller versions of large companies – large companies at their core execute known business models, while startups search for scalable business models. Lean Methodology consists of three tools designed for entrepreneurs building new ventures:
Agile Engineering – to rapidly build minimal viable products to test product/market fit.
These tools tell you how to rapidly find product/market fit inside a market, and how to pivot when your hypotheses are incorrect. However, they don’t help you figure out where to start the search for your new business.
A new tool – the Market Opportunity Navigator – helps do just that. It provides a wide-lens perspective to find different potential market domains for your innovation, before you zoom in and design the business model or test your minimal viable products. This new framework can act as the front-end of Customer Development. It helps figure out the most promising starting position – market domain – for your customer development process. And it helps identify promising Plan B’s and new growth options if you have already embarked on your innovation journey.
Over the years, I have seen many startups and innovation projects perform a painful “re-start” to completely new market domains. With a little more thinking up front these entrepreneurs and innovators could have identified more promising business contexts to play in, and thus avoided this difficult pivot down the road. But while the academic literature is full of papers covering market selection and the literature has some popular books (Blue Ocean Strategy, et al.) there is a lack of easy-to-use tools to do so.
In large companies and government agencies the problem is even more acute. Where do we spend our limited time and resources on our next moves? While the Innovation Pipeline tells us how to go to from sourcing to delivery how do we prioritize our choices? The Market Opportunity Navigator is a useful adjunct to the curation and prioritization steps.
About the Company Flyability is a Swiss company building safe drones for inaccessible places.Their collision-tolerant drone is unique, as it can fly in complex and confined spaces and in contact with humans, because it has a surrounding cage that protects it. They call it Elios.
The Challenge The idea to develop a caged drone was born after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Adrien Briod, the co-founder, envisioned how a collision-tolerant drone would assist in managing such dangerous situations. Yet, very soon he and his team discovered that their drone can perform many different jobs, for different types of customers.
So, where should they begin building their business?
The answer is definitely dazzling, because there are numerous options. That is exactly where the Market Opportunity Navigator comes in handy.
Step 1 – Generating a Market Opportunity Set
The first step of the process enables you to deliberately take a step back and think broad. It begins with characterising your core technologies or unique abilities in their own right, to help you uncover different applications of these abilities, and different types of customers who may need them.
Worksheet 1 – Generating the Market Opportunity Set
Click on the image to view full size
The drone that Flyability develops has unique accessibility due to the decoupled and light protection cage that surrounds it. It can fly or roll on any surface, and will actually be able to operate in a wide range of temperatures and pressures. It will be piloted manually with an on-site video screen, even in very dark, smoked or dusty environments, but only for a limited duration due to battery limitations. Lastly, it can carry an automated, fully adjustable imagery system, with HD and thermal recordings that can be streamed online and analysed offline.
Flyability’s unique drones will therefore be able to inspect and explore inaccessible places – regardless of how complex and confined they are, thus avoiding the need to send humans to dangerous environments.
These unique abilities can be utilised for many different applications, including inspections, surveillance, deliveries, or entertainment – to name a few.
At its early stage, however, the company decided to examine those applications where it can bring real value from the start, including inspections of complex industry machineries, inspections of difficult-to- maintain infrastructures, and also security or search and rescue applications. As detailed in Worksheet 1, these applications can serve many types of customers.
After an initially rough screening, Flyability’s team decided to further examine those market opportunities that seemed more reachable, and especially those that mainly require in-door navigation (to suit the expected initial limitations of the drone).
Their Market Opportunity Set included five options
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Step 2 – Setting the Attractiveness Map
The team was then ready for the next step, using Worksheet 2 to evaluate each of these possible market opportunities and placing them on the Attractiveness Map. This systematic evaluation examines each opportunity on two dimensions:
As an example, let’s look at how Flyability evaluated one market opportunity in their set: the inspection of thermal boilers in power plants.
Plants that convert heat energy into electric power, include huge boilers and super-heaters operating under extreme temperatures. These facilities must be inspected periodically, involving work at height, rope access, sky climbing, or scaffolding. Implementing safety measures, bringing in and installing inspection equipment and performing the actual inspection manually are not only lengthy processes that result in several days of shutdown, but also expose workers to high risks. Replacing a manned intervention with a collision-tolerant drone can thus bring significant value to these energy plants, allowing important savings in time, cost and safety.
The unique value that this drone can bring creates a ‘super-high’ compelling reason to buy. The market volume is quite big (there are about 100000 plants worldwide), and the economic viability is high, due to large expected margins and customers’ ability to pay. The overall potential was therefore estimated as ‘high’.
As for the challenge, the firm already had the know-how for developing the drone, and estimated both the implementation obstacles and the time to revenues as ‘mid’, taking into account the distribution requirements and the length of a sale cycle. The external risks seemed low, because competition is limited and success is not dependent on other parties. The overall challenge was therefore estimated as ‘low-mid’.
Overall, this seemed to be an attractive market opportunity, located in the Gold-Mine quadrant of the Attractiveness Map.
In a process that took few weeks, Flyability’s team assessed their other target markets in a similar manner. It was then possible to depict all these market opportunities on the Attractiveness map, to visually gauge and compare their value.
Click on the image to view full size
Step 3 – Designing the Agile Focus Strategy
Once they felt confident with the evaluation results, Flyability’s team could then use Worksheet 3 to design their Agile Focus Strategy. This strategy clearly defines your primary focus, and a smart portfolio of Backup and Growth options that you will keep open- to make sure you maintain your agility over time.
Worksheet 3 – Designing your Agile Focus Strategy
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Examining the Attractiveness Map showed that inspecting boilers and heaters in energy plants was the most attractive market opportunity for FlyAbility at this stage. It offers a clear value proposition to a large-volume market, and encounters the least amount of challenge for becoming successful. Hence, the team decided that this will be their Primary Market Opportunity.
Once set, it was time to examine possible Backup and Growth options that will be kept open to mitigate risk and ensure maneuverability. Three market opportunities were relevant candidates:
Inspections of storage tanks in the oil & gas industry – while the product was only somewhat related, as it required the ability to work in explosive areas, the markets were relatively close, especially since they shared the same distribution channels for non destructive testing equipment. Overall, this opportunity is suitable for future growth, and hence was kept open.
Inspections of vessels in the maritime industry – Although some stability improvements will be required, the product was tightly related. Yet, the customers only shared some similarities. Overall, this opportunity is also suitable for future growth, and hence was kept open.
Intelligence surveillance for police forces – This is the most unrelated opportunity. The product of course shares some similarities, yet the customers are completely distant: they don’t value the same benefits, and don’t share sales channels or word-of-mouth. In general, this opportunity bears different risks than that of the primary market, and hence was suitable to become a Backup option.
The last examined opportunity – Inspections of nuclear rooms in energy plants – was placed in storage for now, as it bears unique challenges of complying with radio-active environments, for a relatively low- volume market, making it the least attractive option.
Flyability’s Agile Focus Strategy was now set, and can be depicted on the Dartboard:
Click on the image to view full size
This strategic choice provided a clear marketing roadmap and a clear technological roadmap for Flyability’s managers. It enabled them to set the right development priorities, build the relevant networks, and design the proper marketing materials.
Moreover, the team had now the right skills for applying a well structured decision making process whenever it was time to rethink their strategy.
Flyability: safe drones for inaccessible places was last modified: February 13th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
2018 had been a really exciting year for us: We have launched the Market Opportunity Navigator- a framework to help founders and managers choose a promising strategic focus, and the accompanying book ‘Where to Play’. It was a year packed with excitements, creations and achievements. But most of all- it was a year of learning, and what a fascinating learning journey it was!
So… we decided to take a pause to summarize the achievements, and to thank all those that we learned from, and that helped us spread the word during this inspiring year.
The 2018 report: ‘Where to play’ in numbers
1 book in two languages (English and German)
1 free online course
4 downloadable worksheets
16 blogs posted on our website
25 institutions supporting and spreading the knowledge
64 media coverage on the book/ framework (magazines & online)
141 countries where people applied the Navigator
350 hours of training in workshops and courses
2000 people trained
4000 subscribers to our online course
7750 worksheets downloaded
We are new, but ambitious and determined to make an impact
When people ask us what is our main goal with the Navigator, the answer is clear: we want to make an impact! It simply feels great to see the value that we bring to managers who struggle to discover their most promising opportunity
We strive to make an impact by helping entrepreneurs identify, evaluate and prioritize market opportunities for their business, so that they can increase their chances of success and create significant new value.
We believe that choosing the right markets is a crucial process throughout the life of a business, and envision entrepreneurs and business managers prioritizing market opportunities in a systematic way, reducing uncertainty and moving
forward with confidence.
2018 was our year to set the tone. We
started to build relationships with our users, and learned what would help them
reap the greatest value from our framework. We understood the nuances in how we
complement other great business tools, and what it takes to spread the word
And the accomplishments followed quickly! The numbers and figures were surprising and outstanding. But none of that would have happened without the numerous people and organizations that helped us reach out along the year.
Lastly, we wish to thank the people at Pearson Financial Times who believed in us from day 1 and helped us turn this dream into reality, and especially Eloise Cook, Lynsey Martinez and Stephane Nakib.
With the help of these key people we were able to aim high and reach far. Here is a quick peek to some of the organizations we worked with during 2018:
Outlook for 2019
Many exciting things will happen in 2019…and here’s a preview of some – please reach out to us if you are interested to learn more about these opportunities, or have ideas that you want to share with us!
The book, which is currently available in English and German, will be launched soon in French, Chinese, and Vietnamese.
Our online course on EdX is up and running, now on a self-paced mode. You can register for free and enjoy over 50 bite-size videos, examples, and practice exercises.
We are also revising our website www.wheretoplay.co and adding a new section with more use-cases and examples- coming up soon.
And lastly- you can find us in workshops and courses all over the world, including the upcoming USASBE conference, the Forum Forward, MassChallenge and more. If you are interested in a training session, contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
2018: Thank you for an amazing journey was last modified: February 11th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
I just came back from teaching the Market Opportunity Navigator at the Technology University in Munich, where I had a very interesting discussion with my students: does a structured process inhibit or enhance creative discovery of business opportunities?
Coming from a generation that often perceives itself as ‘out of the box thinkers’, their insights surprised me. Before I share these insights, let me first describe the context: during the course, students work in teams on developing a focused strategy for an innovative technology. The very first step of this process requires the discovery of different market opportunities stemming from the innovation.
In other words, they need to deliberately take a step back from the original idea, and strive to uncover other applications of the technology, and other types of customers who may need it. To guide them through this process, we created Worksheet 1- a structured thought-process for generating a set of market opportunities.
This dedicated worksheet begins with characterizing the unique abilities or core technological elements of the venture, detached from any specific product. It’s a ‘de-linking’ process that helps managers think of their assets in a more generalized manner. Then comes the ‘re-linking’ process, where you combine these assets in different ways to identify what types of jobs they can do for different types of customers. Worksheet 1 of the Market Opportunity Navigator. Download the worksheets here. This framework offers a process for creative ideation. But processes can be binding and boring.
They emphasize structure and restrictions where freedom and exploration is required. In fact, creativity is all about thinking outside the box, breaking the rules and escaping constrains, so it is not surprising why many claim that structure actually kills creativity. But is this really the case? Are creativity and structure really contradicting?
Gladly, my students thought the opposite… After working with Worksheet 1 to generate their set of market opportunities, they claimed that a structured approach leads to creative discoveries, and that both are actually two crucial sides of the same coin. Here are the main reasons why: Define what we are looking for To encourage a discovery process, we cannot simply wonder in the dark. We have to define very clearly what is it that we are looking for, or how would the light at the end of the tunnel look like. The students were not just looking for great new ideas, they were trying to uncover new market opportunities, defined as any application of the technology to a specific set of customers.
They claimed that this clear understanding simplified their search process. Set the boundaries of our playground A structured process sets the boundaries for our search: it guides us where to look for answers and how to unleash our creativity. Worksheets and templates channel our thinking process: they offer step-by-step sequences of operations that lead us to focus on the core elements of the problem. The students felt that this systematic approach not only helped them to generate creative opportunities, but also gave them confidence in a process that can be quite chaotic. Play in teams Lastly, innovation is a team sport. We need to play in teams if we wish to truly unleash creativity. Worksheets and frameworks, in this case, provide a communication tool.
They create a shared language that we can use to debate and discuss with peers. For the class assignment, this element was crucial. The students realized it and appreciated this advantage. Overall, although structure and creativity might seem like an oxymoron, I agree with my students and was glad to hear their insights.
The best creativity comes when there is a strong framework of structure to push against. By the way, academic studies found supporting evidences, indicating the advantage of structured methods over conditions of total freedom. Oh… and one more insight: creativity requires structure, but structure requires creativity first, to design the right frameworks.
I hope we were successful in this task when designing our worksheets. Such discussions with students definitely encourage me that we were.
Structured processes for creative discoveries – an oxymoron? was last modified: February 11th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
Before you ‘get out of the building’: How to adopt a top-down orientation to improve your lean startup experimentations.
Lean Startup, by Steve Blank and Eric Ries, is a great bottom-up approach. Through local experimentations, you can gradually reveal a promising market opportunity. In fact, think about these opportunities as mountains. As you gradually begin your climb – through customer interviews and minimum viable products – you can find out if this is at all a ‘mountain’, and if so – whether it is high enough to make the climb worthy. As fogginess gradually fades, you can also check if your trail will take you up the top, and pivot left or right if you find a better one.
But wouldn’t it be devastating to find out that your mountain was actually a hill, or that your Everest was hiding all that time just around the corner? In other words, can you do anything to improve your starting position before you begin your bottom-up journey? Luckily, the answer is yes!
In a remarkable HBR article called Lean Strategy, Harvard’s professor David Collis emphasizes the importance of combining a defined strategy with adaptive experimentations. Although planning in advance and continual pivoting are viewed as polar opposites, Collis claims that they are mutually reinforcing, and in fact must go hand in hand to achieve lasting success. In short, initial strategic analysis provides overall direction and alignment. It can help you uncover promising market spaces, and save your venture from going down the wrong path.
Yet, integrating the top-down orientation of strategic screening with the bottom-up approach of lean startup is not trivial at all. At some point, you might even feel it is stopping you from running forward… but eventually, it will help you make sure you are running in the right direction. And that is indispensible!
So, before you ‘get out of the building’, make sure to adopt these 5 key steps:
1. Take a step back to widen your lens
Even though entrepreneurs tend to fall in love with their initial idea, what you should actually do is take a step back, and deliberately attempt to uncover other possible target markets for your innovation. In fact, a Management Science study clearly showed that generating a set of market opportunities at the outset increases your chances of success. This is not only because it provides a choice set, but also because you can leverage these opportunities in your favor later on. You should therefore take the time to identify different types of customers that may value your innovation, and map out your landscape of opportunities – or the mountains that you can possibly climb.
2. Rely on your core competencies
Your search for potential market opportunities should not be sporadic. In fact, you are not simply searching for unmet market needs, but searching for those that you can actually address with your core strength or unique competencies. The logic here is simple: relying on your core abilities dramatically increases your likelihood to succeed. To identify such opportunities, think of your core technological elements or unique strengths as building blocks – detached from any envisioned product. This will open you up to other possible applications that can be created with these blocks, and to different types of customers who may need them.
3. Set your strategic boundaries
Once you have identified a set of potential target markets for your innovation, you should do some analysis to weed out few options and highlight others. Invest some time and engage in a short market research to understand the major pros and cons of your opportunities, and to assess their attractiveness. An attractive opportunity offers high potential for value creation, and limited challenges in capturing this value. This exercise is essential for identifying the bounds within which experimentation should take place. Setting your strategic boundaries will therefore enable you to focus on more meaningful learning cycles.
4. Figure out what not to do
One of the best advices for entrepreneurs is know what not to do. A resource-constrained startup must learn how to put options aside, and concentrate on a primary business idea. This strategic analysis will therefore help you clarify not only which customers are worth further validation, but also which target markets should be ‘placed in storage’. Opportunistic sales and inquiries could also be screened based on these strategic bounds.
The wide perspective that this strategic analysis provides is essential before diving into the validation process of a specific market opportunity through intensive customer interviews and minimum viable products. The Lean Startup Methodology is truly invaluable in this search for clear market evidences. Once you are ‘back at your building’ however, you should also go back to your strategic overview, and reflect on your learning. It will help you to interpret the feedback from the market and effectively learn from your experiments. Furthermore, if the validation outcome is simply a no-go decision, you will be able to pivot more easily, and even more distantly, as you already have other options at hand. Put differently, you will be able to combine deliberate and emergent strategies as you strive to find a promising, viable opportunity.
5. And finally… use tools available out there
A new business tool that can help you combine these top-down and bottom-up processes is the Market Opportunity Navigator. This visual framework structurally guides you how to generate your market opportunity set, and how to evaluate and prioritize your markets. You should apply it before engaging in intensive market validation – to set your boundaries, and once you gather enough information – to compile and reflect on your learning. Furthermore, the tool will guide you how to set a strategy that focuses on the most promising target while smartly leveraging other opportunities to keep you agile and ready for pivots.
One example of a company that was able to combine strategic planning and lean experimentations using this strategic tool is OnSiteIQ – a NY based startup offering visual documentation and safety analytics monitoring to improve safety and quality control in construction projects. Ardalan Khosrowpour, founder and CEO, originally planned to utilize his deep know-how in computer vision and machine learning to tap into the existing cameras in the buildings and create smart ambient temperature control solutions for large commercial buildings to improve the energy efficiency and air quality. Strategic analysis of other market opportunities stemming from his unique abilities revealed the attractive opportunity of improving safety in construction sites, where he eventually decided to set his boundaries: “The Market Opportunity Navigator provides a broader view of the market opportunities before diving into customer discovery with a laser-focused approach. It helped OnSiteIQ exit a local optimum market opportunity. It helped us take a step back from our laser-focused customer discovery and revisit our decision regarding the customer segments and the product-market fit before moving forward” says Ardalan.
5 Steps to Strengthen your Lean Startup Experimentations was last modified: April 10th, 2018 by Marc & Sharon
The tale of an Industrial IoT startup discovering a new strategic business tool.
Augury is bringing predictive maintenance technology to new markets. The technology combines two key shifts in the industry: artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. The intersection of these trends allows Augury to provide machines with a mechanical nervous system and the awareness to optimize their own health, thereby accelerating human productivity and safety.
Founded by Saar Yoskovitz (CEO) and Gal Shaul (CTO), and backed by leading venture capitalists, the company was recently recognized for its standout contribution, named one of CRNs Internet of Things top 50.
In the following blog, Co-founder and CEO Saar Yoskovitz describes how they chose their first market opportunity, with the help of a newly designed business tool.
Having a clear vision doesn’t automatically mean having a clear target market
When we founded Augury, we had a very clear vision in mind: ‘machines talk, and we should be able to understand what they are saying’. We wanted to develop a technology that listens to the sounds machines make to diagnose their problems and predict malfunctions.
An initial technological investigation revealed that developing this technology would be challenging yet doable. As we started working on this project, we quickly realized that machines are literally all around us – all the way from complicated manufacturing lines to simple home appliances. This raised an even more challenging question for us – how can we know what type of machine we should listen to, or choose which target market to focus on?
At times, it seemed like the possibilities were endless. As we looked closer at the market, many verticals were underserved by the existing solutions that were expensive and complicated to use. As a small team, we knew that we couldn’t possibly tackle all of these verticals at once, and therefore, had to focus our efforts on one. But choosing a beachhead can be a complicated task.
We put great effort into narrowing our options to few market opportunities that we could more deeply investigate. It ranged from cars and complex industrial machinery, to air-conditioners and even the human body. We then embarked on the time-consuming task of researching these different markets to ensure we had all the necessary information at hand to make the right choice.
Using the right business tools
We followed the Lean Startup approach to test our assumptions on each of these market opportunities. We performed interviews, showed mockups, handed out surveys, and visited several conferences to validate our assumptions and to better understand the business environment of each option.
The more information we gathered, the more perplexed we felt. We tried to work systematically and to document our learning, but each iteration generated even more questions to be answered. Each option had different upsides and downsides, and it felt like comparing apples to oranges lacking a clear framework through which to put all the options on the same map. Eventually, after many hours of research, hard work and tough decisions, we found our way and began to navigate the industrial markets.
When I later learned about the Market Opportunity Navigator, it was abundantly clear to me that such a tool would have helped us focus and streamline our decision-making process. And we have been using the tool ever since.
The Market Opportunity Navigator , a new business tool designed by entrepreneurship professors and researchers Marc Gruber and Sharon Tal, helps founders set a smart market strategy. The Navigator is a structured framework for identifying, evaluating, and strategizing your market opportunities. It is visual and easy to apply, with 3 dedicated worksheets to walk you through these 3 steps. But most importantly – for us at least – we found a way to make sense of all the data we gather, and make more informed choices.
At the heart of this method lies the Attractiveness Map – a simple two-by-two matrix, to map out your options based on two dimensions: the potential of each market, and the challenge in capturing it. A special worksheet guides you through the process of measuring each dimension. The overall potential is assessed by evaluating the compelling reason to buy, the market volume and the economic viability of the opportunity. The overall challenge is assessed by evaluating the implementation obstacles, the time to generating revenues and the external risks. Once you are done, you can place each option on the Attractiveness Map, and finally compare apples to oranges.
The matrix divides your options into four groups: Moon-shots (high potential, high challenge), Gold-mines (high potential, low challenge), Quick-wins (low potential, low challenge) and Questionable opportunities (low potential, high challenge). For us, it was great to see that we had a Gold-mine market opportunity – one that stood out over the others. It was the auxiliary equipment and infrastructure of large industrial and commercial facilities. A complicated strategic choice turned into a structured and manageable task.
As a bonus, we also liked how the tool guides us through the process of designing our strategy to remain agile without losing focus. It guides us on how to select backup and growth options, and on how to devote the right amount of attention to keep them open.
Now that our initial market is maturing, we yet again find ourselves searching for our next vertical. If you visit our offices you will see the sticky notes and worksheets of the Market Opportunity Navigator on our walls as we select our next market.
Success story: how startup Augury determined its market opportunities was last modified: February 11th, 2019 by Marc & Sharon
I recently came back from teaching a 5 day course at the Technical University of Denmark. Master students from different departments came to learn how to identify, evaluate and strategize market opportunities for innovative technologies. During the course, they learned how to apply our new business tool, the Market Opportunity Navigator, and implemented it on university-related inventions.
I have been teaching this course for quite a while now, and in many institutes around the world. Yet, there were three sentences that I heard from my students this time, that really got me thinking about the quality of the course and made me realise we are probably doing something well.
I want to share them with you, as I believe they can provide some important insights on how to design a meaningful learning experience and increase the engagement of our students.
“This was much harder than I expected”
During the course, postgraduates work on identifying and evaluating different market opportunities for a given invention, and learn how to set a promising strategy in an uncertain environment. When they first hear about the idea from the inventor, it seems like an easy task for them: they can imagine the target customers and envision the business potential. Yet, during the course they understand the challenges and all the considerations that come into play when making such a profound strategic choice. Their ability to go deep on the evaluation, and to reflect that this was actually much more complicated than they thought it would be, showed me that the process was right. The message here is clear: setting a good strategy is a complicated task. Different opportunities have different upsides and downsides, and there is hardly ever a ‘perfect’ option. This is exactly what I want my students to understand, and this is exactly why they need a good set of tools to help them make difficult decisions in a solid manner.
“I don’t think the inventor will like our recommendations”
Getting real engagement from the students in an academic course is never easy. One approach that usually helps is working on live cases, preferably by university inventors. In fact, when the students meet the inventor in person, and actually sit and discuss the business idea together, their engagement raises tremendously. They no longer work for the sake of an ‘academic project’, but to help a founder deal with his real dilemmas. Interestingly, they start talking about the project as if it was their ‘baby’: we will do that… we will focus on this… etc. This empathy and involvement are great. It helps them gain first-hand experience in setting up a new venture, and this is exactly what we want. However, because they are not actually working on their very own ideas, they still can find the required distance to put their biases and emotions aside, and analyze the opportunities in an objective manner. It was when I heard this sentence that I fully realized this great advantage. The students can find the justification to recommend a strategy that was completely different than the original intentions of the inventor. Well… now I am sure they actually know how to make an informed strategic choice. Great achievement!
“A good framework makes you think out of the box”
I believe frameworks are very important for a good learning experience. It is absolutely essential that we provide the students with very clear guidelines on what they need to do and how they should do it. The Market Opportunity Navigator and its worksheets present a very structured and visual framework, and therefore it does the job well for students: it bounds them and helps them to focus on their key assignments. In fact, as a good framework, it simply provides the questions that they need to ask themselves. Finding the answers is actually their task. But structured processes have some limitations. They might lock our minds and put our creativity aside. That is exactly why I liked this last sentence so much! We want the students to be open, think broadly and creatively about different business opportunities, and at the same time be structured and systematic in their analysis. We want to provide them good frameworks that actually help them think out of the box. Bingo!
Getting a good vibe from your students is the highest incentive a teacher can get. So I was heading back home after this great week in Denmark, and kept thinking about these unique sentences. They are not fawning in any way, but they really gave me the feeling that we are doing something right!
If you want to apply the Market Opportunity Navigator in your own teaching, head on to the new page for educators on our website. You can download a free Educators Guide and plenty of other supporting materials.
3 Interesting Insights from Students and Why We Should Care about Them was last modified: January 21st, 2018 by Marc & Sharon
Start-ups must focus sharply. Everybody knows that! And the reason for that is very clear: they are always limited on resources – money, management attention, time… so they simply cannot afford to spread it too thinly. In that case, is it at all possible, and even more interesting – is it at all worthwhile for start-ups to pursue multiple market opportunities simultaneously?
Parallel is not a dirty word
As we found in a research studying early market choices of over 300 new technology ventures, the answer to these questions depends on the specific conditions that the firm faces, and surprisingly – it is not always negative. In fact, such parallel strategy may actually turn out to be beneficial if done under proper conditions!
The main condition for the suitability of parallel strategy is acting in highly uncertain markets. When customers’ needs are not sufficiently clear, and founders cannot articulate the features and usage of their product, you can consider pursuing two market opportunities in parallel, to balance your risk and limit the chances of failure. Alternatively, if your initial idea offers limited potential for value creation or long time to revenues, you can bundle it with an additional opportunity to improve your performance.
Think carefully about your bundle
Yet…the only possible way for new ventures to actually benefit from this mitigation strategy, is if they carefully identify, evaluate and choose to pursue markets that are closely adjacent. Adjacency between two market opportunities means that they are tightly related on two aspects: the development of the product, and the delivery of the product.
While technology entrepreneurs usually think thoroughly about the development of the product, they often tend to underestimate the required capabilities for the delivery of the product in the market- which might be just as challenging, if not even more.
Tight relatedness between two markets will enable start-ups to grow and leverage the resources and capabilities that they are already developing for one market, and use them for succeeding in the other. It is the only way to overcome the scarcity of resources that founders face in these early days.
The case of through-wall visioning
One example of successful parallel strategy is a company named Camero. Camero developed a pioneering technology for through-wall visioning, and aimed to address both police forces and militaries from the very beginning. This was possible because the development of the product, and bringing it to the market, required relatively similar resources and capabilities. It thus enabled the new venture to mitigate the risk of slow adoption and long sale cycles, without spreading themselves too thinly. Indeed, it turned out to be a significant strategic decision for the successful future of the company.
Overall, while a focused strategy is – with no doubts – a critical element for start-ups’ growth and success, you may consider and even benefit from a smart parallel strategy when it is highly critical for your performance. Pursuing tightly related opportunities will enable you to balance risky moves yet stay focused, as the resources and capabilities that are required to succeed in both are almost similar.
Startup Growth Strategy: How to Pursue Multiple Market Opportunities was last modified: November 12th, 2018 by Marc & Sharon
4 Types of Market Opportunities and Why Should You Care
Any venture can apply its abilities or core technologies to create different types of applications and address different types of customers. This creates a set of strategic possibilities, or market opportunities, which need to be prioritized so that you can focus on the most attractive option.
Clearly, market opportunities are not ‘born equal’: some are more valuable than others – offering different levels of value creation potential (link to post: is this opportunity worth pursuing), and some are easier to pursue than others – offering levels of value capture challenges (link to post: is this opportunity reachable for us).
A visual and intuitive way to distinct between market opportunities and grasp their differences is to map them on a simple 2*2 matrix which we call The Attractiveness Map. The Y axis represents the overall potential of each market opportunity (ranging from low to super-high), and the X axis represents the overall challenge in capturing it (ranging as well from low to super-high).
This creates 4 quarters, or zones, that represent 4 types of market opportunities: Quick Win, Gold Mine, Moon Shot and Questionable.
I. Quick Win
Opportunities that are located in this quarter of the map offer relatively low potential but also entail low challenge for capturing it. You can choose to focus on such options to increase your sales volume in a relatively safe manner, or simply as a stepping stone towards a larger and more challenging opportunity in the future.
Tesla chose such a strategy when focusing first on the high-end electric sports car, as a stepping stone towards an affordable electric car for the mass market.
II. Gold Mine
Gold Mines are rare opportunities that promise high potential with a relatively low challenge for you. Uncovering a Gold Mine is usually a result of identifying a significant need in the market that no one has been aware of before (think about Facebook for example), or of developing an extremely powerful capability that no other company has. If you have a Gold Mine opportunity in your map, you should definitely focus on pursuing it.
III. Moon Shot
Just like their name, Moon Shot opportunities promise you tremendous potential, but are extremely challenging. In the risk-return analogy, these are high risk – high return options. Breakthrough ideas often fall in this quarter of the map (innovative drug development is one clear example). Choosing to focus on a Moon Shot means that you accept the entailed risk and that you are prepared for the long-term ride, with a hopefully rewarding end.
Questionable opportunities offer a challenging climb towards a relatively low reward. Logically, companies should avoid pursuing questionable opportunities, but yet the #1 reason for startup failure is putting much sweat in developing an offer that no one really needs. So, if you invest time and effort in researching and validating your business ideas before pursuing them, you just might save yourself from focusing on such questionable options. Alternatively, you can think how to re-shape your idea so that it becomes more attractive to you.
Overall, while estimating the potential and the challenge of your opportunities require a great deal of attention, it will help you to distinguish between your options, and to be fully aware of their upsides and downsides before choosing where to play.
From Quick-Wins to Moon-Shots was last modified: December 19th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
Entrepreneurship is fueled by urgency, by running fast. But, have you ever stopped to check that you’re running in the right direction? Have you ever really considered your business focus?
Our recently published book, Where to Play, features a 3-step guide to help entrepreneurs discover their most valuable market opportunities. However even before this, entrepreneurs must know the precise direction in which they are headed. This is why a business plan must have a clear focus with succinct definition and flexibility. As we all know, business is unpredictable, and things can change at short notice. Bumps in the road are par for the course, and entrepreneurs need to be prepared to adjust their way of thinking to ensure maximum success.
There are many tools out there that entrepreneurs find helpful in guiding themselves through the challenges. Using the Market Opportunity Navigator, you can structure your thoughts and create a strategy to ensure focus.
Of course, flexibility and changing the structure of your plan is challenging. It is difficult for us to convince ourselves that our original plan may not be the best one. Entrepreneur Paul Graham says that, “You have to be prepared to see the better idea when it arrives. And the hardest part of that is often discarding your old idea”. So how do we mentally prepare for this eventuality? Here are 3 tips to help you make this mental change.
Keeping options open
Cognitive flexibility is the mental ability to switch between thinking about two different concepts, and to think about multiple concepts simultaneously. This is what gives us the power to let go and accept change. In order for this to occur, additional strategies should be identified so that we have alternative options, which may be necessary in the future.
What is your Plan B? What will you do if your initial plan proves unsuccessful? The best back up plans are less risky, and should give you the confidence to let go of Plan A if necessary.
Keeping options open
Keeping your options open is, in other words, maximum flexibility and being open to change. Be aware that Plan A may not succeed as expected, and as such reduce expectations.
The most important thing to remember is that your first plan may not always be your last, and that your success may not be achieved the way you originally planned. Or as Scottish National Poet, Robert Burns wrote, “The best-laid plans of mice and men do often go awry.”
When to Let Go of Plan A was last modified: December 13th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
In today’s fast-paced business world, entrepreneurs, innovators, and business leaders are trained to act quickly in order to make their ideas a success. With such a focus on running fast, entrepreneurs often fail to make sure that they are actually running in the right direction. They either jump straight into the first market opportunity that looks good, or attempt to pursue too many opportunities at once.
Where to Play, a new book by Dr. Sharon Tal and Prof. Marc Gruber, helps business leaders to quickly identify, evaluate, and focus on the opportunities that offer the most value for their innovations, while keeping them agile enough to respond to unforeseen changes.
Where to Play helps readers set a promising strategy for their business through a simple Market Opportunity Navigator, which was developed based on 15 years of rigorous research and hundreds of real-life cases. This structured and easy-to-use framework allows readers to set their strategic focus in three important steps:
Generate Your Market Opportunity Set
Assess your core strengths and identify which market opportunities exist for your business
Depict Your Attractiveness Map
Evaluate your market opportunities to reveal the most attractive option for focus
Design Your Agile Focus Strategy
Create a strategic plan for your chosen market opportunity that keeps you open-minded and agile
Where to Play is presented in a highly visual and engaging style that breaks up a complex decision-making process into clear, easy-to-manage tasks.
Who is this book for?
This practical book is not only invaluable for entrepreneurs and startups who are searching for the best markets to focus on, but will also help the heads of established firms to free themselves of distractions and focus on the growth opportunities that will add value to their business.
In fact, anyone attempting to commercialize new innovations can benefit from this structured process, including investors, venture capitalists, and even technology transfer offices. Educators and accelerators can teach their trainees how to apply this tool, while using it to reflect on their learning and track their ongoing progress.
What will you achieve with this book?
The book presents the Market Opportunity Navigator and takes you by the hand as you progress through its 3 steps, illustrated with numerous cases and examples.
Applying this structured business tool will help you to:
Identify potentially groundbreaking new market opportunities
Make a well-informed market choice
Communicate, share, and debate with team members and stakeholders by creating a common understanding and language
Track and update your market opportunity strategy over time to better manage the commercialization effort
Obtain valuable insights into other key business tools, such as the Business Model Canvas and the Lean Startup Methodology
Eventually, it will help you to reap the greatest benefits from your innovation.
How much time should you dedicate for the book?
To read through the book, you will only need a few hours, because the book is highly visual and not text-heavy. However, if you wish to apply the Market Opportunity Navigator on your own business idea, be prepared to invest a significant amount of time. Remember that this is a learning process: you will need to discover different types of customers and understand their motivation, you will need to set your strategic focus wisely, and you will need to set your assumptions for each market and to validate them in order to assess and compare your options. This learning process takes time, and rushing it may have dramatic consequences on your venture. The process could extend from a few days to a few weeks or even months, depending on your situation and your current knowledge. Take your time and don’t forget – running fast is useless if you are not running in the right direction!
In this book, you will find:
Introduction: Are you running in the right direction?
The Market Opportunity Navigator in a nutshell
2) The Market Opportunity Navigator: 3 Steps to Discover Your Most Valuable Market Opportunities
Market Opportunity Set
Agile Focus Dartboard
3) Implications & Benefits
Implications of the Agile Focus Strategy
Ongoing benefits of the Market Opportunity Navigator
Using the Market Opportunity Navigator with other business tools
4) Beyond Startups – The Navigator for:
Technology Transfer Offices
Educators and Accelerators
5) Epilogue- the Navigator’s Navigator
Part 1- Overview
The first part of the book discusses why it is so critical yet so challenging to set a proper market opportunity strategy for your venture. It presents the logic behind the Market Opportunity Navigator and its three steps, and highlights some important concerns to keep in mind as you go through this learning process.
This major part of the book clearly guides you in applying the three steps of the Navigator, with the help of detailed explanations and numerous examples.
Step 1: Using Worksheet 1, you will learn how to describe your core abilities independently of any product, and how to identify different applications that can be developed with these abilities, along with potential customers that may need these applications. The desired outcome is your Market Opportunity Set.
Step 2: Using the dedicated Worksheet 2, you will learn how to evaluate the attractiveness of each market opportunity based on two dimensions: The Potential of the opportunity and the Challenge in capturing its value. The result of this scoring process is depicted in the Attractiveness Map.
Step 3: Using the dedicated Worksheet 3, you will learn how to assess potential Backup and Growth options, once the Primary Market Opportunity is chosen. By examining the value and relatedness, you are able to decide which opportunities to pursue now, which will be kept open for later, and which will be placed in storage. The resulting strategy (the “Agile Focus Strategy”) is depicted on the Agile Focus Dartboard.
Part 3- Implications and Benefits
This part digs deeply into the final outcome of this process — your Agile Focus Strategy — and how it influences different aspects of your emerging venture, in an attempt to balance focus and flexibility. It also illustrates how to work effectively with the Market Opportunity Navigator, both over time and in concert with other well-known business tools such as the Business Model Canvas and the Lean Start-up Methodology.
Part 4 – The Navigator for Established Firms, Investors, Technology Transfer Offices, and Educators and Accelerators
Even if you are not the founder of a young startup, you can find the process depicted in this book extremely relevant and valuable. This part of the book describes how different types of customers, including established firms, investors, technology transfer offices, and educators, can benefit from applying the Market Opportunity Navigator.
To summarize and illustrate this profound decision-making process, we finish the book with an example of how we used this tool to set up our very own market opportunity strategy.
About the Authors
Professor Dr. Marc Gruber is a world-leading researcher in the field of innovation, entrepreneurship and technology commercialization. Marc is Vice President for Innovation at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where he also heads the Chair of Entrepreneurship & Technology Commercialization. He works as the Deputy Editor for a prominent empirical research journal in management, the Academy of Management Journal. Marc is actively engaged in teaching, consulting, and executive training programs in Europe, the US, and Asia, and regularly acts as a jury member in startup and corporate entrepreneurship competitions across Europe. He has been ranked as the #1 researcher in entrepreneurship for 2005-2015.
Dr. Sharon Tal is the co-founder and former executive director of the Entrepreneurship Centre at the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, and a well-recognized lecturer on marketing for high-tech start-ups. She gives lectures and workshops on a regular basis, and serves as a mentor in many organizations that aim to help budding entrepreneurs. Sharon also has significant experience in marketing and in strategic consulting. Her Ph.D. research analysed the market entry decisions of hundreds of startups and their consequences on firm performance and flexibility.
Where can you get the book?
Where to Play is available on amazon.co.uk for £16.99, and will be available in bookshops around the world.
3 Steps to Discover Your Most Valuable Market Opportunities was last modified: December 17th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
Not all opportunities are equal… in fact, understanding how valuable and attractive your strategic options are, is crucial for setting a winning strategy and choosing where to play.
But what is an attractive market opportunity for you?
Research on motivation and goal-setting clearly emphasizes the importance of setting goals which are both desirable and achievable at the same time. Hence, an attractive market opportunity for you to focus on is one that will likely produce significant potential for value creation (i.e. desirable) and that poses relatively few challenges in capturing that value (i.e. achievable).
In a previous post, we discussed how you can systematically evaluate the potential inherent in a market opportunity and find out if it is worth pursuing. In this post, we will deal with how you can uncover the main challenges associated with each market opportunity, by looking at three key questions.
Assessing the challenge of a market opportunity is critical to your evaluation process. It looks at which obstacles lie ahead if you decide to pursue it, what will be your main risks, and how difficult will it be for you to overcome them and conquer this opportunity. While the potential of a market opportunity is assessed in and of itself, this parameter examines your own capacity to succeed in it, given the resources and capabilities that you already possess.
To evaluate the challenge of any market opportunity, you will actually need to assess three key factors:
On your way to a successful market launch, you will face challenges in creating and delivering the product. Assessing these difficulties, and the additional resources that you will need to develop or acquire in order to face them, is critical for your evaluation.
In order to assess this, you need to consider three main questions:
How difficult will it be for you to develop the product?
How difficult will it be for you to access the market?
How challenging will it be for you to raise funding for this option?
The answers to these questions offer key insights on the challenges that you will face during implementation.
Remember that while innovators often give much thought to the challenges of creating the offering, they often tend to neglect the challenges of bringing it to the market, which may sometimes be much more difficult. So, give it careful attention.
Time to Revenues
Your clock is ticking and money is usually burned quickly, so the speed in which you can generate cash flow through sales is definitely a major consideration.
To estimate this, you need to consider the three main questions once again:
What is the estimated time for development?
Will we need to wait until the market is ready for our offer?
How long is the sales cycle expected to be?
Based on the answers to these questions, you will have a better understanding of the time element associated with your market opportunity.
Of course, this time element is tightly related to your implementation. However, they emphasize two different perspectives that are both important when seeking to understand the underlying challenges of a market opportunity.
Lastly, your success can be put at risk by many companies and players in your business environment. While you most probably cannot control this risk, it still has to be taken into account when assessing how difficult it will be to succeed in any specific market.
To assess these risks, consider three important questions:
How threatened are you by competition?
How dependent are you on other companies or players?
How susceptive are you to adoption barriers?
Objective answers will help you to get important insights on the risk level inherent in your opportunity.
Once you have thoroughly gone through these three key factors, the overall challenge of a market opportunity becomes more apparent. You can adopt a quantitative approach or a qualitative approach for summarizing your analysis and estimating how reachable it is for you.
In any case, using such a structured checklist will help you to perform a comprehensive evaluation, and to make sure that you have not missed any important consideration. It will also enable you to compare different market opportunities, and set your strategic goals to be desirable and achievable.
3 Key Factors for Evaluating the CHALLENGE of a Market Opportunity was last modified: December 17th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
Free online course first released on October 3rd, 2017 Click here to enroll
As an entrepreneur or innovator, you are trained to run fast, but…Are you running in the right direction?
Choosing the right market for your innovation is one of the most critical yet challenging decisions for innovators. As we have seen over and over in our studies, entrepreneurs don’t spend enough time assessing their possible market opportunities. They tend to focus on the first opportunity that seems interesting, and fail to evaluate other options and unleash their true potential and power. As a result, they might choose the wrong market for their business to “play in”, or simply lock their company into one specific direction.
In this course, you will learn how to discover which markets are most valuable for your business and how to set your focusing strategy properly using the Market Opportunity Navigator. This business tool provides a clear framework to help you identify, evaluate, and strategize your market opportunities through three simple steps:
Search broadly – To generate your set of market opportunities
Assess deeply – To evaluate your options and compare their attractiveness
Strategize smartly – To focus on the most attractive opportunity while remaining agile
Three dedicated worksheets guide you through the process, and we illustrate it with many examples and case-studies.
The course is given by Prof Marc Gruber, a world leading researcher in entrepreneurship and the Vice President for Innovation at EPFL (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), along with Dr. Sharon Tal, Co-Founder and former Executive Director of the Entrepreneurship Center at the Technion (Israel Institute of Technology). They developed the Market Opportunity Navigator based on 15 years of rigorous research and hundreds of real-life cases.
Who is this course for?
This hands-on course is valuable for anyone interested in commercializing innovations.
Whether you are already running your startup or only dreaming of establishing one, you will find this practical know-how extremely useful, as it will help you to set your strategic focus from the outset, or set your pivoting strategy whenever required.
The course provides novel insights and creates value for managers in established firms, just as it does for founders of newly created ventures. Whether you are the CEO, VP for Business Development, the Innovation Manager of your firm, or any other role that faces the challenge of finding new growth paths, the course will help you to better position your entrepreneurial endeavors for success! Enroll today to receive valuable business advice for your startup or for your next venture.
Overall, the Market Opportunity Navigator is an important tool that you should add to your management toolbox and turn to whenever you need to design or redesign your strategy.
Course Structure and Content
The course includes over 50 video clips, organized in 5 modules and spread across 5 weeks of learning:
Week 2 – How to Generate Your Market Opportunity Set
Presenting the first step of the Market Opportunity Navigator: Using Worksheet 1, you will learn how to decouple your core abilities to identify different applications and different types of customers that need them. The output is your Market Opportunity Set.
Week 3 – How to Evaluate Your Market Opportunities
Presenting the second step of the Market Opportunity Navigator: Using Worksheet 2, you will learn how to evaluate the attractiveness of each market opportunity by estimating its potential and the challenge in capturing it. The output is your Attractiveness Map.
Week 4 – How to Design Your Agile Focus Strategy
Presenting the third step of the Market Opportunity Navigator: Using Worksheet 3, you will learn how to design a smart portfolio of Backup and Growth Options around your Primary Market Opportunity. The output is your Agile Focus Strategy.
Week 5 – Implications and benefits
Understand the implications of the Agile Focus Strategy on your venture, and how to benefit from applying the Market Opportunity Navigator over time in concert with other well-known business tools (including the Lean Startup and the Business Model Canvas).
Overall, expect to invest between 1-2 hours per week to get the most out of this learning journey.
What will you achieve with this course?
At the end of this course, you will be able to:
– Discover multiple market opportunities stemming from your core strengths
– Evaluate the attractiveness of your opportunities in a comprehensive and unbiased manner
– Make an informed choice on which markets to play in, in order to increase your chances of success
– Balance focus and flexibility, two very critical aspects that often contradict one another
– Develop an open mindset and nourish your receptiveness to change and adaptation
– Facilitate team discussions and debates on this all-important strategic choice
Managers of small and large firms encourage their employees to identify innovative business ideas, often resulting in a wealth of opportunities for company growth.
Surely, having a set of possible market opportunities at hand is a valuable asset for the business. However, it also tends to create a dilemma for you: which option(s) should you focus on and pursue with full force? Which ones should you put aside for now?
To make this all-important decision, you need to carefully evaluate your options, as opportunities clearly differ in their level of attractiveness.
An attractive market opportunity is one that will likely produce significant potential for value creation, and that poses relatively few challenges in capturing that value.
In this post, we will focus on how you can evaluate the potential inherent in a market opportunity by looking at three key questions. In our next post, we will deal with how to uncover the challenges associated with these opportunities, so make sure to subscribe in order to get updated when it’s live.
Assessing the potential of a market opportunity is critical to your evaluation process. It involves asking certain questions, such as: How BIG is this opportunity? Is it at all worth pursuing? If so, how much value can we create if we choose this path?
To evaluate the potential of any market opportunity, you will need to assess three key factors:
Compelling Reason to Buy
If no one wants to buy it, it isn’t worth anything…So the first thing you need to learn about a market opportunity is whether someone will really want what you have to offer. If the compelling reason to buy is low – it’s simply a ‘No-Go’, because demand will not fly.
To evaluate this key factor, you need to look deeply into three important questions:
Is there a real unmet need?
Can you provide an effective solution for this need?
Can you address it (much) better than current available solutions?
An honest answer to these questions will lead you to estimating how compelling your offer is.
Note that the only way to assess this factor is to look through the eyes of your customers. It’s not what you think, it’s what they think that counts – what they say, or even more importantly, what they do. So, go out of the building and talk about this market opportunity with as many potential customers as possible, to validate your beliefs.
Satisfying a real need is an important condition for creating value. Yet, it is the market volume that will determine to what extent you can sell your product and, thus, to what extent you will create that potential value.
To evaluate this key factor, you need to look closely into two important questions:
What is the size of the current market?
How much is it expected to grow over time?
Try to estimate how many customers actually face this need (now and in the near future) and how much they will be willing to pay for what you plan to offer them. Objective answers to these questions are the basis for estimating the volume of the market.
To size a market, you will have to talk to potential customers and other experts or sales channels representatives, look for competitive approximations, and search for existing analyst reports and relevant market research.
Remember that for completely new markets, which have no customers, no well-defined competitors, and no products yet, measuring the size of the opportunity is more of a ‘guesstimation’ than an exact evaluation.
The last factor for assessing the potential of a market opportunity estimates the economic benefit of this option for you. Without getting into a detailed sales plan or profit-and-loss calculations, it refers to the basic elements that influence the economic value of a market opportunity.
You can get a relatively good understanding of this economic potential by examining three main questions:
Do you have sizeable margins?
Are the customers well-funded enough to pay the price?
How sticky are customers expected to be?
While challenging to estimate, it is important to make sure that you have enough slack between the cost of your offer and how much customers are willing to pay for it. In any case, make sure to talk to your ‘economic buyers’ to understand their perspective.
Once you have thoroughly gone through these three key factors, you can estimate the overall potential of your market opportunity. You can adopt a quantitative approach for that by scoring each factor on a pre-set scale (for example 1-5 or low to super-high), and then averaging the results to get an overall score, or you can adopt a more qualitative approach by taking into account the major pros and cons that you identified as you analyzed these factors.
In any case, using such structured framework will help you to be more comprehensive in your evaluation, and to make sure that you have not skipped any important consideration. It will also enable you to compare different market opportunities, and to make a more informed strategic choice on which markets you should focus on.
3 Key Factors for Evaluating the Potential of a Market Opportunity was last modified: August 20th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
Markets & Choices that May Keep You Awake at Night
As an entrepreneur or innovator, you must decide which market opportunities you should focus on. Without a doubt, this is one of the most fundamental decisions you will ever make in your commercialization process. It is crucial, not only because this choice is key for creating value and generating sales, but also because it has a long term impact on the DNA of your venture. The market choice influences the venture’s identity, culture, structure, brand name, and many other aspects which are difficult to change down the road, or might even be irreversible.
So, once you need to set your strategy, you must thoroughly investigate your options, and understand the pros and cons of each market opportunity on your table, so that you can choose a promising path.
Yet… here’s the catch: despite the critical nature of this choice, and your best efforts to find the most fertile ground for your venture, chances are that you will need to change or adapt your market choice over time. This is because innovation is all about uncertainty and the unpredictable future. Conditions of uncertainty require placing flexibility at the top of your list of priorities. In other words, once you have chosen your direction of focus, you also need to make sure that you remain agile while keeping your eye on the target.
This makes your choice of ‘which horse to bet on’ even more complicated. In fact, as you strive to set your strategic focus, you actually need to consider two questions:
WHAT What is the most attractive market opportunity that you should focus on?
HOW How can you focus and stay flexible, agile, and open-minded at the same time?
Here are some basic tips that can help you find your answers and make this profound decision.
Whether you foresee only one single market opportunity, or have a set of possible opportunities to choose from, you must take the time to carefully evaluate the attractiveness of your option(s), or you may find yourself running in less than optimal direction. An attractive market opportunity has two main characteristics:
First, it bears high value creation potential. iI other words, it offers a compelling reason to buy for a large set of customers who will be able and willing to pay for it.
Second, it entails a relatively low challenge in capturing this value, meaning that the difficulties in developing and delivering your offer and the risks associated with your business environment are manageable, and overcoming them is achievable in a reasonable time frame.
All in all, you need to assess both aspects to make sure that you are ‘betting on the right horse’.
Balancing focus and flexibility is a critical challenge, especially for startups. In a classic HBR paper, Eric Beinhocker claims that established companies must bet on multiple horses and cultivate a portfolio of strategies to hedge against key uncertainties. This creates a robust and adaptive strategy, that willingly sacrifices focus for the sake of flexibility.
However, startups are so scarce on resources and management attention that they simple cannot afford to follow this advice. Instead, once you choose your primary market opportunity, you must carefully select very few options that you consciously keep open, so that you will be able to mitigate your risk and increase your value with minimum effort.
To do so, pick at least one backup option and one growth option, and make sure not to lock yourself out of these markets as you develop your technology, write your patents, or even set your brand name.
Overall, keeping these considerations in mind will enable you to make a more informed choice, and hopefully… sleep better at night.
Entrepreneur, Are You Betting on the Right Horse? was last modified: August 20th, 2017 by Marc & Sharon
Uncertainty is inherent to the innovation process. That is why choosing the best markets for an innovation is almost always a high-risk, low-data decision, which calls for informed intuition rather than purely analytical reasoning. That said, it does get more complicated…
Choosing what market a start-up should focus on is so difficult because this decision usually entails some major trade-offs. The pros and cons of various options create real dilemmas for entrepreneurs (one option can have high potential but bear high risk from competitors, another option can offer a lower but safer payout, etc.). Given this quandary, it is not surprising that many entrepreneurs ‘take a wrong turn’, or make decisions that may ultimately cause the venture to never take off.
Based on our research and experience, we have identified four common mistakes that entrepreneurs make as they attempt to find the right market opportunity:
Fail to look before they leap Often enough, founders jump at the first envisioned market opportunity, without taking the time to uncover other, potentially more valuable options. They tend to fall in love with their idea, and don’t extend their vision to other customers that may need whatever it is that they are developing. Being blind to other alternatives may simply mean that you are aiming for an inferior market. Furthermore, having a set of options at hand should come in handy in the future, if pivoting is required. A research published in Management Science found that the mere identification of alternative markets, in and of itself, increases the start-up’s chance of success.
Base choice on partial information Although the great impact of a market choice is clear, entrepreneurs often make this choice based on very limited knowledge. They count on their intuition, or they simply follow a specific customer that expresses interest in their offering. While both intuition and an interested customer are important factors, there are other things that must be considered to verify the potential of a market opportunity. Overall, poor research and insufficient evaluation of the market can lead to big disappointments down the road.
Choosing too narrowly Common mistakes relate not just to choosing the ‘wrong’ market, but also to the scope of your market choice. Following the common advice regarding the importance of laser-sharp focus for start-ups, entrepreneurs often concentrate their resources on pursuing a single narrow path at the expense of flexibility. They develop their product, build their network, and define their branding and identity all to target a very specific set of customers. While sharp focus is clearly important for start-ups, they must simultaneously ensure that they keep other options in mind and retain their flexibility. Eventually, locking the venture into a narrow development path means losing the ability to adapt or pivot over time, as too much ‘undo’ will be required.
Choosing not to choose Lastly, some founders find it difficult to be decisive about this critical decision, and choose to postpone it until major uncertainties fade. Choosing not to choose means that you keep your coexisting efforts in several markets. Ventures that try to juggle with several balls in the air spread themselves too thin, and because they fail to concentrate their scarce resources, they can’t win in any key market. Deciding what markets we should focus on is definitely difficult, but it is a must if you want progress and get traction in the market. So, make sure you’re clear on the markets that you’re targeting, and on the ones you’re avoiding.
These mistakes may turn out to have fatal consequences for new ventures, or at least may significantly prolong the entrepreneurial start-up phase.
The Market Opportunity Navigator offers a clear, step-by-step guide on how to master the art of choosing a market. It guides business leaders on how to uncover and assess different markets to pick the most attractive one, and how they can hedge their bets by keeping some related options open, while avoiding the risk of over commitment to any particular option.
Click here to download the Market Opportunity Navigator worksheets for free and start looking for the most lucrative markets for your startups.
4 Common Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make When Choosing Their Market was last modified: September 23rd, 2019 by Marc & Sharon